Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Domestic customers will get access to high-quality Swiss products such as watches, chocolates, biscuits, and clocks at lower prices as India will phase out customs duties under its trade pact with the EFTA bloc on these goods over a period of time. India and the four-European nation bloc EFTA signed a trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) on Sunday to boost trade and investments between the two regions. The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
The 15th India-Vietnam Defence Dialogue signalled a move from routine talks to deeper cooperation, with new deals on submarine rescue and defence industry to support stability in the Indo-Pacific, notes Dr Rajaram Panda.
'No retaliatory tariffs now. You can retaliate after a few months.' 'Today, there is no need to retaliate because it is a question of long term benefits.'
'Indian markets may underperform global peers for the next two quarters.' 'But beyond that, India should catch up and resume its long-term growth path.'
Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya urges state government 'to intervene for an early and amicable resolution for maintaining a positive manufacturing sector ecosystem'.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell on Friday, extending their downward journey to the third day, as investors continued to reel under pressure caused by the imposition of high tariffs and relentless foreign fund outflows.
The talks for a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Canada may have taken a pause but will resume once the political row between the two countries is resolved as the pact has economic benefits for both the nations, trade experts and exporters said on Friday. However, they said that India may not hurry for the trade agreement as 60 per cent of New Delhi's exports are already entering Canada at zero duty. Earlier this month, India and Canada paused the negotiations for the agreement due to political reasons.
India stares at the risk of an influx of Chinese products as US tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including solar panels, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, syringes, and steel, are set to take effect from September 27. With higher tariffs reducing China's access to the US market, there is concern that China may divert its exports to other markets, including India, which could lead to potential dumping of goods. This situation could challenge Indian industries, particularly in sectors where competition with Chinese products is already fierce.
Domestic customers will get access to high-quality Swiss products such as watches, chocolates, biscuits, and clocks at lower prices as India will phase out customs duties under its trade pact with the EFTA bloc on these goods over a period of time. India and the four-European nation bloc EFTA signed a trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) on Sunday to boost trade and investments between the two regions. The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.
Corporate earnings from blue-chips like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Donald Trump's swearing-in as the US President, and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors to drive equity markets this week, analysts said. Trump will be sworn in as the US president for a second term on Monday. This week, several key Nifty-50 companies, including BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are scheduled to announce their financial results.
Goods from sectors, including agriculture, precious stones, chemicals, pharma, medical devices, electricals, and machinery may get impacted if the US will go ahead with imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian products, according to experts. They said that these sectors could face additional customs duties from the Trump administration because of the high tariff differential or gap, which is the difference between the import duties imposed by the US and India on a product.
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
The defence minister also announced that India has taken up the challenge of developing a powerful indigenous aero-engine, adding that preparations for this critical project are now almost complete and the work will soon be visible.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has identified around Rs 77,800 crore as "difficult-to-recover" or DTR dues in its annual report for 2024-25 (FY26), marking a nearly 2 per cent increase from the previous year. These dues remain unrecovered despite exhaustive recovery efforts.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
India's trade ties with Israel have only strengthened in the years after 2019. The total value of trade rose to $10.5 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis in June 2023 from $5.5 billion in the same month in 2019, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A rolling four-quarter number provides a comparable figure across different time periods.
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market, withdrawing Rs 24,753 crore (about $2.8 billion) in the first week of March amid escalating global trade tensions and lacklustre corporate earnings.
Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, and NTPC were among the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
If pharmaceutical exports from India to the US come under a 25 per cent tariff bracket, the impact on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) could be around 5 per cent, felt analysts. This is after assuming that about 75 per cent of the tariff would be passed on.
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were the biggest laggards. In contrast, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, JSW Steel, Asian Paints and Reliance Industries were gainers.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
The MiG-21 episode demonstrates that procurement is always strategic.
Choices about what aircraft to acquire, who builds them, who supplies the spares, who trains the pilots and technicians are decisions with political consequences lasting for decades.
Countries that raised concerns about the quality of Indian spices have called for urgent attention and action, Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Wednesday. The stakes are high since India exported spices worth about $692.5 million to the United States (US), Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Maldives in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), it said. During FY24, India's spice exports were worth $4.25 billion, accounting for a 12 per cent share of the global spice exports.
As the Union government explores ways to restrict import of laptops and other electronic devices starting with a 5 per cent reduction from the current level, it is working to ensure that there's no supply disruption in India even if an import cap is introduced, it is learnt. The caveat assumes significance in the context of the government's announcement of its plan in August 2023 to issue licences for import of select IT hardware products to reduce the country's dependence on China.
Gold imports more than doubled in August to a record high of $10.06 billion, mainly on account of a drastic cut in customs duty and ongoing festive demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gold imports stood at $4.93 billion in August 2023. On record high imports, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that the tariff rates on gold have been reduced drastically so that smuggling and other activities can come down.
A ban on US-based high-frequency trader (HFT) Jane Street did little to dent activity in the derivatives segment, with July volumes rising 10 per cent month-on-month to an eight-month high. Analysts and experts said the jump may have come from proprietary and retail traders, spurred by a spike in market volatility.
India has reduced the time period for foreign investors to seek international arbitration from five years to three years as part of the recently signed investment pact with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a departure from its model Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Under the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, if the Indian judicial system is unable to resolve a dispute within this shortened period, investors can resort to international arbitration. The investment pact, signed on February 13 in Abu Dhabi, came into force on August 31, replacing the previous pact.
'As negotiations continue, the path forward demands not only diplomatic skill, but also vigilance against legal asymmetries embedded in America's trade playbook.'
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 705.65 points to 81,702.52 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 182.85 points to 24,929.55.
The steep cut in Customs duty on silver in the FY25 Budget to 6 per cent from 15 per cent may provide the government temporary relief by checking the spurt in silver imports from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). In FY24, silver imports from the UAE jumped to $1.7 billion from only $11.18 million in FY23, according to commerce department data. In May, about 87 per cent of India's silver imports came from Dubai.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
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